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REALISTIC: Obama 311, McCain 227
This is my official prediction. Obama builds on the Kerry map by locking up New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa. Nevada and Virginia come next -- partly due to substantial numbers of Asian American voters and concentrated efforts by awesomeAsian American activists. Ohio and Florida are both borderline; I'm predicting an Ohio win partly because the Democratic Secretary of State of Ohio hasn't and won't put up with the hijinks that her Republican predecessor allowed.
POSSIBLE: Obama 353, McCain 185
This would be a beautiful outcome, and it's entirely within the realm of possibility. All we're doing here is adding North Carolina and Florida to the previous map. Obama's currently ahead in both states, and TPM reports that Obama is visiting both states in person today. This result would really open up the map for Democrats by showing that we can compete on a Presidential level in the South.
INSANE CANDY-COLORED FANTASYLAND: Obama 406, McCain 132
Amazingly enough, nothing on this map is impossible. Obama's within a few points of McCain in McCain's home state of Arizona, of all places. We're not going to win all of this. But by running so hard and so well, Obama's put all of these states into play, which has helped him weaken McCain in states he should have locked up months ago and laid the groundwork for further victories in 2010 and beyond. Of all the new states on this fantasy map, I'd say Missouri's the most realistic pickup and Indiana's the least probable.
NIGHTMARE: McCain 274, Obama 264
Didn't think I'd let you get off easy, did you? Here's the worst case scenario. Obama builds on the Kerry map by adding New Mexico and Iowa, but misses the mark in Virginia, Nevada, and Ohio. This is pretty darn unlikely at this point -- Virginia has looked pretty solid for Obama for some time. But THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN, folks! So enough gawking at maps -- call and email your friends and relatives and remind them to vote -- and visit the Obama website, enter your zip code, and find out how you can help get out the vote on Election Day!
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