Thanks to his great first quarter in fundraising and a history of winning in Republican territory, Democratic candidate for Congress in Kansas 4th Congressional District and current State Senator Raj Goyle, has had his race upgraded from Safe Republican to Likely Republican by the well-respected Congressional Quarterly.  While this remains an uphill battle, the upgrade gives a glimmer of hope and could show further momentum.

The U.S. House contest in Kansas’ strongly conservative-leaning 4th District should not be one of the GOP’s big 2010 worries, even though the seat was left open by eight-term Republican Todd Tiahrt .

Though the district, which includes Wichita, once had a Southern Democratic character, Tiahrt’s 1994 upset of veteran Democratic Rep. Dan Glickman was a prelude to his long stretch of dominance at the polls.

But Tiahrt’s decided to forgo re-election this year for a bid to succeed outgoing RepublicanSam Brownback in the Senate. And that has left the door ajar for the Democrats, who are preparing for a vigorous — though long-shot — bid by state Rep. Raj Goyle to capture the 4th District seat.

CQ Politics has changed its rating on the race to Likely Republican from Safe Republican. The new rating means the Republicans still are strongly favored to hold the seat. But it also means the Democrats are now expected to stage a serious campaign and could make the race highly competitive under the right circumstances.

This is because the district produced one of the better Democratic recruits for a long-shot race. Goyle raised more than $400,000 in his first quarter as a candidate (July 1-Sept. 30). He was elected to two two-year terms in the state House, making him one of the nation’s most prominent officeholders with family roots in India.

Another factor mitigating against a sure Republican victory is that the GOP is looking at a late-in-the-year (Aug. 3 primary) with several competitive and well-funded candidates: At least two of the candidates, Republican National Committeeman Mike Pompeo and businessman Wink Hartman, could fund some of their own campaign expenses. And if this crowded field turns into a negative advertising battle, Democrats could have a better chance at competing against a bruised and battered survivor.

Still, this is a tough district for the Democrats. Voters in the 4th favored 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain by 58 percent to 40 percent over Democrat Barack Obama, and went 64 percent-34 percent for President George W. Bush in 2004.

Of the six South Asians running for Congress this year, I actually put Goyle in the top tier, right after Ami Bera in CA-03 and Manan Trivedi in PA-06.