Day 3... if you're still with me, kudos to you!  So, as a review...part 1 was about the current policy and part 2 was about the new policy and predicted racial demographics of students who will be Entitled to Review (ETR) in the UC admissions process. Today, we're going to address this SCARY line in the email sent to community folks by the API Caucus chair. Regarding the policy changes, he states:

These changes negatively affect API applicants and will likely result in lower percentages of API students being admitted to UC campuses.

Alright folks, time to clarify some points in this statement and discuss the difference between ETR (formerly known as "UC eligible") and admissions. First, let's talk about the "Master Plan," which was a magical scroll sent to us humans in the 1960's by visitors from outer space, who wanted to dominate California... sorry, stupid joke. It's been a long weekend writing this for ya'll. But in all seriousness, the Master Plan dictates foundational principles in the California system of higher education, and provides parameters on who gets admitted to different segments of the state's public higher education system.  The Master Plans basically says that the UC must select its students from among the "top 12.5%" of the state's graduating high school students, but it doesn't say how the "top 12.5%" is defined.  And that is at the heart of the policy on eligibility (current) or ETR (new policy) - Who gets defined as "top 12.5%" in the state, and in the pool from which UC campuses get to select students? (This is a good point to remind everyone that if a student is deemed eligible or ETR, it doesn't mean s/he'll apply or is an applicant. It just means, the student has the right to apply and be considered for admissions at any campus s/he wants, but is never guaranteed the campus or major s/he wants.) So in the current policy, you're in the "top 12.5%" if you're in the top 4% of your graduating class or if you're in the top 12.5% of the state based on grades and tests; you apply to the UC's of your choice, then you're guaranteed entry to at least one UC campus. Basically, if you're "UC eligible" + you submit an applicant, you are part of the "top 12.5%". In the new policy, the "top 12.5%" is defined differently, and consists of 2 groups: ETR-guaranteed students + students selected from the ETR-not guaranteed students. Remember the ETR-not guaranteed students are the ETR students who are not in the top 9% of their graduating class or the top 9% of the state based on grades and tests, but completed all requirements to be deemed ETR. Since the ETR-guaranteed students make up about 10.1% of the state's graduating students, and if they apply they're guaranteed a spot somewhere in the UC, there's still a balance of 2.4% that needs to be made up to meet the Master Plan's "12.5%". The remaining "2.4%" will be selected from the ETR-not guaranteed students pool of applicants. [10.1% + 2.4% = 12.5%.] Got that? OK, now notice that we haven't yet talked about admissions. We've only talked about who is  eligible/Entitled to Review in the UC admissions process. And now, I know you've all been waiting to talk about admissions, and it just hasn't been the right time yet.  It's almost time... ...almost... OK... NOW.  Since we've figured out the first hurdle in UC access (Which students are Entitled to Review?), we can talk about the 2nd hurdle to UC access - the point of admissions. Here are the general steps in the UC admissions cycle:

1. Students qualify to be ETR, and decide whether or not to apply to the UC. If they do apply, they need to figure out which campus(es) to apply to.
2. ETR (guaranteed + not guaranteed) students apply to UC campuses of their choice.
3. Each campus uses its own unique criteria and process (aka their own comprehensive review process) to admit students from the applications forwarded to them.

Here's where "comprehensive review" kicks in. Every campus has its own comprehensive review policy and practices, which defines what exactly each campus is looking for in admitting students from the total pool of ETR students. For more on comprehensive review and its impacts on racial diversity, check out my friends' awesome report. So now, with the new policy, opportunity is opened to many more students to make their case for admissions. In the end, because about 46.5% (=10.1%/21.7%) of the ETR pool are guaranteed admissions, about 80.8% (=10.1%/12.5%) of the ultimately admitted students will be selected from the ETR-guaranteed pool. The other 19.2% (=2.4%/12.5%) of the incoming UC frosh will be selected from the ETR-not guaranteed pool. So, what's the racial demographic impact on the predicted admits under the new policy? It's not pretty, and before I show you that table, I want to say that these predicted numbers are highly problematic.  In predicting these numbers, the UC analysts used 2007 data from the CA Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC) to project admitted #'s that may/may not happen under a new policy that won't go into effect for another few years. By Fall 2011, it's incumbent upon the UC to educate teachers, counselors, students, and families about the new ETR policy and students' rights to apply to the UC. Behaviors will change in response to the new policy.  More importantly, the predictions are speculative at best, because they don't account for the 9 undergrad campuses' comprehensive review policies and processes, which will change over time and are really what determines the final incoming UC classes. Given all these problems with the statistical model used to predict these numbers, I can't figure out why the UC would release these numbers that I think are really irrelevant, given that they don't account for comprehensive review. Yea... these numbers are frightening, but like I said, I think these numbers are highly speculative and shady. But, I do think it's definitely a warning for AAPI's (and anyone else concerned about racial equity in college access) to stay actively engaged and vigilant in the UC policy making process, and demand predictions over time on both ETR numbers and admit numbers, especially as we get closer to Fall 2011. So... bottom line, as a community organizer here are my first 2 RECOMMENDATIONS: ACTION 1: Demand the UC increase resources and efforts to conduct outreach to prepare students for the new policy on ETR. ACTION 2: Demand annual demographic projections of predicted ETR numbers and admit numbers, using disaggregated data. Disaggregated data... we haven't talked about that yet. Let's turn to that in post #4. Stay tuned lovely readers!

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