A lot has been made about recent polling showing that even Republicans think that she is unqualified to be President. But does this really doom her? Here's a reason to believe she may be able to overcome her skeptics and become the 2012 nominee.

The reality is that most candidates do not lose a race based on perceived incompetence or ignorance. In Presidential debates, in fact, the candidate perceived as weaker in intellect has often outperformed the candidate perceived as smarter : See Bush-Gore or Reagan-Carter. Most recently, Fred Thomson, the former Tennessee Senator and Law and Order star, surprised his critics with respectable debate performances in the 2008 Republican primary. In fact, having low expectations may be a good thing: It sets a low bar, and lets the candidate claim credibility with a half-way decent showing. Heck, even Dan Quayle held his own when he debated Al Gore in the 1992 election.

This is not to say that Palin is even at that threshold yet. Certainly in the 2008 election she was woefully unprepared to talk intelligently about the issues on a national stage. But she has at least 2 years to get educated for the 2012 primaries - that's 2 years in which to form a team of advisers, develop policies and talking points, and practice against sparring partners.

We should assume that Palin has some modicum of actual intelligence and the work ethic to apply herself in these areas.

If she does - and she can put in a half-credible job in the debates - she will be a formidable candidate in the primaries. She has strong support among the critical Religious Right base, which gives her 30-40% of the vote. And unlike Huckabee and other past Religious Right figures, she's able to transcend that group, picking up disaffected Tea Partiers and neo-cons.

The key for Palin is to win Iowa. A "respectable" Establishment candidate will likely win New Hampshire, where her brand tends not to do as well. The field will then narrow quickly to the top two candidates: Palin the religious right-Tea Party-Everyman outsider, and Romney-Pawlenty-Thune, the fiscal conservative-Establishment-Elite-insider.

If that's the choice, my bet's on Palin.